Texas voters back state economy, but growth is uneven

A new Texas 2036 poll finds most Texas voters expect the state to outperform the nation economically over the next four years, even as many worry about the future and whether growth is reaching their communities. Federal labor data in the same report shows job growth varies sharply across Texas counties.

Why it matters: - Texas voters are upbeat about the state’s economic trajectory, but the poll shows that confidence is unevenly shared across communities. - The results point to a central policy challenge: keeping Texas’ job growth strong while making sure more people and places benefit from it. - Voters also strongly support linking education and job-training spending to measurable workforce outcomes.

What happened: - Texas 2036 released its 10th Texas Voter Poll on Sept. 15, 2026. - The poll found 68% of Texas voters are extremely or very concerned about the future of the state. - By nearly 3-to-1, voters said Texas will have the stronger economy over the next four years. - 57% chose Texas, compared with 21% who chose the rest of the United States. - 52% said Texas’ economic growth has benefited them personally. - 33% said Texas’ economic growth has not benefited them personally. - 59% said they are confident there will be good opportunities for people like them to use their skills, earn a living and get ahead. - 34% said they are not confident about those opportunities.

The details: - Texas 2036 paired the poll with an analysis of federal labor data showing Texas continues to outperform the nation in job creation. - The same analysis found more than half of Texans, 52%, lived in a county where employment either declined or remained essentially flat over the previous year. - Kaufman County saw employment grow 41% over five years, driven by extraordinary population growth. - Harrison County lost 5% of its employment over the same period. - Hutchinson County remained essentially flat over the same period. - Calhoun County experienced a sharp employment decline over the past year. - 79% of voters said Texas should change its approach to senior year of high school and add more focus and rigor to better prepare students for college and careers. - 85% supported requiring the state to track and publicly report whether the more than $100 billion Texas invests annually in education and job-training programs leads to good-paying jobs. - The poll was conducted Aug. 22-26, 2026, by Baselice & Associates for Texas 2036. - Researchers completed 1,369 interviews with registered Texas voters. - Results were weighted to represent registered Texas voters statewide with an effective sample size of 1,001. - The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. - Tracy Ayrhart, vice president of data and analytics at Texas 2036, said Texas continues to add jobs and workers while much of the country is growing more slowly. - John Hryhorchuk, senior vice president of policy and advocacy at Texas 2036, said statewide growth does not guarantee the same opportunities everywhere.

Between the lines: - The poll suggests Texans can believe the state economy is strong while still worrying that their own county or household is not sharing equally in that growth. - The county-level labor data helps explain why optimism about Texas can coexist with anxiety about local opportunity. - The education findings show broad public backing for an outcomes-based approach rather than spending judged only by input dollars. - House Bill 8 in 2023 shifted community college funding toward student outcomes, including credentials of value, successful transfers and dual-credit completion. - Senate Bill 1786 in 2025 added regional labor-demand analysis and more detailed employer wage reporting by occupation, industry and county of employment. - A recent Texas 2036 analysis found a 22.3% increase in credentials awarded during the first two years of the new funding system. - That same analysis found a 26% increase in credentials in high-demand fields.

What’s next: - Texas lawmakers and education leaders are likely to face continued pressure to tie public investments more closely to employment results. - Texas 2036 is signaling that the next policy step is measuring whether education and training dollars are producing stronger workforce pathways and better family incomes. - More local labor-market reporting could shape how colleges and school districts adjust programs to match regional employer demand.

The bottom line: - Texas voters trust the state economy, but they want proof that growth is reaching their communities and turning into better jobs.